Headwinds--Or Only a Wall of Worry?
Written December 29, 2010 At the end of 2008 investor sentiment was as depressed as I have ever witnessed. Again, at the end of 2009, despite a strong rally from early March through year-end, investors...
View ArticleRecent Stock Market Turbulence
Sent to our clients on March 16th, 2011 At the moment the crises in Japan, North Africa and the Middle East are still very much in flux, so it would be premature and unwise to draw any firm investment...
View ArticleSwan Lake Redux
If Marius Petipa, the choreographer, and Pyotr Tchaikovsky, the composer, were creating this ballet in today’s globalized world, they would most likely dress the corps de ballet in black and put Odile,...
View ArticleIs There a Psychiatrist in the House?
It is a source of considerable annoyance (and sometimes amusement) to all serious investors that two years after the flight of many household and institutional investors the much reduced daily trading...
View ArticleThe Multi-Factor Market
While I have no conviction on the timing, I am absolutely sure of one thing, to wit: Whenever the litany of worries hanging over the equity market begins to dissipate, there will be an explosive rally...
View ArticleThe Great Divide
Not since the Civil War has the Government of the United States been as ideologically divided as it is today, at just the time when our economic and political standing in the world and our security are...
View ArticleReflections on the Current Turmoil
In some ways this short memo builds on our longer piece, THE GREAT DIVIDE, which we sent to you last week. The S&P 500 peaked at 1370 on May 2nd and reached 1119 yesterday for a decline of 18.3%,...
View ArticleThree Little Words
Stock markets around the world have been tumbling for the past four months. The decline so far in August has been the most volatile and violent. There is no doubt in our mind that the problems facing...
View ArticleBig Bang Bankruptcies
Over the course of the last half century or so, except for the credit collapse of 2008, virtually every recession in the US economy came about as the result of a tight monetary policy engineered by the...
View ArticleThe Month of October
After a five month decline which saw the Standard & Poors 500 Stock Index fall more than 21% from peak to trough, several events in the month of October contributed to an improvement in investor...
View ArticleThe Month of November
During November, hopes for a resolution of the European debt crisis faded as sovereign bond yields reached record highs and wholesale funding sources for Euro area banks continued to dry up, crimping...
View ArticleThe Revulsion Phase
Last December, at a small pre-Christmas luncheon, I was asked by the host to look ahead to 2011 and offer a few thoughts regarding the economy and the financial markets. To summarize briefly, I opined...
View ArticleDespite the Headwinds
After screeching to a halt in July and early August, as the debt ceiling debacle was unfolding, the US economy has been gaining traction on many fronts despite a number of persistent headwinds, none of...
View ArticleThe Sky Is Not Falling
All too often in recent years most investors have allowed themselves to be frightened into selling the shares of well-positioned companies in the wake of some exogenous event whose significance is...
View ArticleAn Ode to the Permabears
It should not surprise anyone that the S&P 500 is up more than 25% since the end of September and more than 12% year-to-date. Over the past six months improving high frequency economic data have...
View ArticleReminiscences of a Long-term Investor
As measured by the popular market averages, not necessarily by individual equities, the stock market has made little or no progress for more than a decade. Many factors have combined to impact the...
View ArticleHave I Got a Deal for You!
Looking for a vacation home on a beautiful Greek island? Just sit tight, and keep your money in dollars. You won’t have to wait much longer. In the year 2000, the exchange rate for the Greek Drachma...
View ArticleThe Not So Merry Month of May
After a 26% rally over six months, the S&P 500 reached an intraday high of 1422 on April 2nd. The Index then proceeded to decline 7.9% to 1310 on May 31st, leaving it up only 4.2% for the...
View ArticleAre There Any More Worries Yet To Be Discovered?
There probably are, but the list of concerns that are weighing on equity valuations currently is so long and has been so well disseminated over the past couple of years that we find it hard to believe...
View ArticleQue Sera Sera
Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman often said that, “What distinguishes man from the animals is not so much the ability to reason as it is the ability to rationalize.” I suppose much of the following might...
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